A week ago, the White House leaked details about Obama's plans for immigration reform should Congress fail to act. What does the plan tell us?
First, the plan has much more detail than anything yet released by any Congressional groups working on reform. The level of detail tells Congress and the general public that the President is very serious about immigration reform and has invested a considerable amount of time thinking about what it should look like. Congress now knows that if it doesn't act, the President is willing to act and would have something to send over to Congress very quickly. This should induce Congress to move more quickly.
Second, while the plan reveals more details, not all aspects of immigration reform are equally detailed. The plan provides more detail on the path to citizenship than any other aspect of immigration reform. This is no accident. It is an attempt to reassure the Latino community that the President understands its concern. The Latino community's primary concern has always been the provision of a path to citizenship because that provides relief from the relentless focus on enforcement and brings people out of the shadows.
Third, it shows the President understands that any path to citizenship should not be tied to sponsorship by a family member or an employer. Instead, the path to citizenship is tied to being present in the U.S. on a certain date. This is important because a path to citizenship tied to sponsorship by a family member or employer would either require a huge increase in the annual quota of visas or create waiting lists that potentially would take decades to clear. Neither scenario is politically acceptable. The President is sending a signal to Congress that any path to citizenship that Congress proposes also should be tied to presence, not sponsorship.
Fourth, the plan reveals what the President means by the principle "go to the back of the line." With his proposed plan, people who are here illegally will wait 8 years to get a green card. During that 8 years, the President intends to clear existing waiting lists. To accomplish that would require a significant increase in visas. What his plan does not reveal is whether that increase to the volume of visas would be permanent or temporary, but at least the waiting lists would be cleared.
Fifth, even if the President's preferred path to citizenship is adopted, it will not be as generous as the President proposes. Although 8 years is a long time to wait for a green card, in all other key respects, the President's path to citizenship is extremely generous: small penalty, no minimum time spent in the U.S. It is extremely unlikely Congress would pass such a generous path to citizenship. Congress more likely would require proof an applicant has been here for a certain amount of time instead just proving presence prior to the introduction of the immigration reform bill to Congress. Similarly, the penalty fee would be much higher. The penalty fee for the 245(i) amnesty in 2001 is $1,000. Based on an inflation adjustment, the 2013 amnesty fee would more likely be at least $2,000-$2,500, if not higher.
Sixth, the President is sending a message to those who already qualify for a green card under existing immigration laws: they should move forward based on existing laws because that will help them get a green card faster and with fewer conditions. Eight years to get a green card is a long time. Certain individuals (e.g. spouses of U.S. citizens) can get a green card under current laws in about 16 months.
The coming weeks will be interesting as immigration reform debate unfolds. Hopefully there will soon be a bill before the Senate or the House.
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